According to the STB, P&W filed a verified notice of exemption pursuant to 49 CFR 1150.41 to enter into a 20-year operating agreement with up to two ten-year extensions with the State. P&W will continue to run the Middletown Cluster, which comprises the Cromwell Industrial Track from its connection to the Laurel Industrial Track in Middletown (approximately milepost 22.34) north along the west side of the Connecticut River to the end of the line in Cromwell, Conn. (approximately milepost 24.35); the East Berlin Industrial Track in Middletown, Conn., from its point of connection to the Cromwell Industrial Track (approximately milepost 0.0) to the end of the line (approximately milepost 1.0); the Laurel Industrial Track from its connection to the Middletown Secondary on the west side of the Connecticut River Swing Bridge (approximately milepost 0.0) south along the west side of the Connecticut River to the end of the line in Laurel, Middletown Township, Conn. (approximately milepost 5.47); the Middletown Secondary from a point approximately 4,330 feet south of the centerline of Route 157—Overhead Bridge No. 17.71 in Reed’s Gap, Durham Township, Conn. (approximately milepost 14.99) to the west side of the Connecticut River Swing Bridge (approximately milepost 22.34); and the Portland Industrial Track from the west side of the Connecticut River Swing Bridge, its connection to the Middletown Secondary in Middletown (approximately milepost 0.0) to the easterly side of Marlboro Street in Portland, Conn. (approximately milepost 1.01). The verified notice states that the mileposts have been revised to reflect the current designation.
(Courtesy of OpenRailwaymap.org)“According to the verified notice, the State owns the Line, and P&W currently operates the Line as a successor in interest to Connecticut Central Railroad Company, Inc. (CCR),” the STB reported. “P&W states that CCR began operating the Line in 1987. The verified notice states that P&W and the State have entered into a new operating agreement that will replace the prior operating agreement. … The verified notice notes that as the successor to CCR, P&W also currently operates the State’s approximately 11.49-mile Wethersfield Secondary rail line pursuant to a modified certificate, and further states that this arrangement will continue under the new operating agreement.”
According to the STB decision (download below), the new operating agreement does not include an interchange commitment. The government agency noted that P&W further certifies that projected annual revenues due to this transaction will not result in the creation of a Class II or Class I rail carrier.
Pursuant to 49 CFR 1150.42(e), because P&W revenues currently exceed $5 million, it must, at least 60 days before this exemption is to become effective, post a notice of its intent to undertake the proposed transaction at the workplace of the employees on the affected lines, serve a copy of the notice on the national offices of the labor unions with employees on the affected lines, and certify to the Board that it has done so. However, STB reported that P&W’s verified notice of exemption “includes a request for waiver of the 60-day advance labor notice requirement so that the exemption can become effective 30 days after the verified notice was filed.” P&W’s waiver request will be addressed in a separate decision, according to the STB. The Board said it will establish the effective date of the exemption in its separate decision on the waiver request.
Petitions for stay must be filed no later than Dec. 5, 2025.
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In advance of the Surface Transportation Board (STB) evaluating a Union Pacific (UP)-Norfolk Southern (NS) merger application (yet to be filed), rival BNSF wants a separate proceeding to examine, with remedies, its allegations that UP has a history of not honoring competition-enhancing commitments such as it agreed to in 1996 when merging with Southern Pacific (SP).
In a Nov. 28 filing with the STB, BNSF says such an investigation must come ahead of evaluating the UP-NS merger application so as “to prevent further degradation” of competitive options.
STB merger rules require that within six months of the applicants’ late July 2025 notice of intent to merge, they must file the formal application. Once filed, STB rules allow for 30 days to accept (or not) the application as “complete.” Once accepted, STB publishes a procedural schedule for reviewing environmental, public interest, competition and service impacts.
BNSF says a longer timetable to permit a separate investigation is appropriate because STB precedent, “since time immemorial,” prevents “old harms” from being evaluated as part of merger application review. BNSF cites comments to that effect by now retired STB Chairperson Martin J. Oberman in 2022 during agency review of an approved Canadian Pacific-Kansas City Southern merger creating CPKC.
Alleged by BNSF is a UP “pattern of obstructive conduct” toward pro-competitive conditions imposed by STB in approving the 1996 UP-SP merger. That conduct, says BNSF, has systematically interfered with its ability to compete as was intended.
Among BNSF’s examples of UP “obstructive conduct” are UP giving “preference to its own trains” at the Eagle Pass, Tex., border crossing to Mexico; UP’s claim of “exclusive use of new sidings” at Baytown, Tex.(above); and UP’s “discriminatory dispatching” of trains.
Specifically, BNSF wants the STB—ahead of its review of the UP-NS merger application—to investigate “UP’s harmful conduct since the UP-SP merger; enforce the rights granted to BNSF to preserve competition; and modify the conditions of the UP-SP merger approval decision, as the Board deems necessary, to ensure customers are not further harmed by UP’s ongoing efforts to stifle, and its failure to preserve, competition.”
In its 106-page petition (STB Docket No. FD 32760 (Sub-No. 52), BNSF Railway Company—Petition for Review—UP/SP Merger Conditions, download below), BNSF reminds the STB that the 1996 UP-SP merger was “unprecedented in scope, combining two of the three largest railroads in the West and linking 35,000 miles of track in what became the nation’s biggest rail network.” It thus eliminated, said BNSF, direct and indirect competition across thousands of miles where the two carriers had previously gone head-to-head for customer business.
A UP-NS merger, creating the nation’s first U.S. transcontinental railroad, will further enlarge the UP network, which would have an enterprise value of $250 billion, with some 40% of U.S. rail traffic. This would dwarf rival CSX’s $83 billion value and make UP some 50% greater in enterprise value than BNSF (estimated, as BNSF is not publicly traded).
“The essential bargain struck [in 1996] by UP-SP to obtain Board approval for their merger,” says BNSF, “involved granting BNSF expansive rights and means to access shippers that otherwise would have suffered from a reduction in their competitive options as a result of the merger (so-called 2-to-1 shippers).”
To preserve those rights, says BNSF, “the Board imposed various conditions on UP, including, for example, requiring UP to (1) allow BNSF to have access to shippers at 2-to-1 points via extensive trackage rights over the combined UP/SP network; (2) allow shippers to elect to be served by BNSF when establishing new shipper facilities at 2-to-1 points and along BNSF’s trackage rights lines; (3) ensure that BNSF would have the benefit of access to certain infrastructure jointly funded with UP; and (4) ensure that BNSF has equal treatment with respect to dispatching and serving customers in several shared service areas.”
Significantly, says BNSF in support of its petition, the STB said it would “remain available—into the indefinite future—to consider and promptly resolve any disputes of general applicability relating to the conditions imposed.” BNSF says that since “UP has increasingly sought to frustrate the [1996] UP-SP merger conditions and, at times, simply refused to abide by the conditions,” its requested investigation, with remedies, is appropriate.
BNSF’s allegations that UP cannot be trusted to abide by its prior commitments, punctuated by a request for a separate investigation ahead of STB accepting a UP-SP merger application, appears a clear signal that BNSF intends to be pugnacious during an expected merger review process. Its aggressive involvement, says a shipper group’s attorney asking not to be identified, “could serve to embolden CN, CPKC and CSX to join with BNSF and shipper groups in pressing for enforceable, pro-competitive conditions as part of a UP-NS merger approval.”
“I expect STB to give BNSF’s petition substantial weight,” the shipper attorney told Railway Age, emphasizing that “UP said it will abide by whatever conditions the STB may impose should its merger with NS be approved.”
This development and many others surrounding the UP-NS merger will be discused in detail at Railway Age’s Next-Gen Freight Rail Conference, March 10, 2026, at the Union League Club of Chicago. 310384DownloadThe post BNSF to STB: First Cure UP’s ‘Old Harms’ appeared first on Railway Age.
The Surface Transportation Board (STB) on Nov. 26 granted authority for Fortress Investment Group LLC (Fortress) to acquire control of Class II Wheeling & Lake Erie Railway Company (W&LE) and terminal switching carrier Akron Barberton Cluster Railway Company (ABC), boosting Fortress’ small-road portfolio to eight.
Two-time Railway Age Regional of the Year recipient W&LE operates over approximately 982 miles of track in Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Maryland. ABC, a W&LE wholly owned subsidiary, runs on roughly 84 miles of track in the vicinity of Akron, Ohio.
“The Board’s decision follows a thorough review of the petition for exemption filed by Fortress on August 28, 2025,” the STB reported (download STB decision below). “In its filings, Fortress explains that the transaction will enable W&LE and ABC to benefit from the short line railroad experience and financial strength of Fortress’s other holdings. Fortress also asserts that the transaction will not lead to higher rates or reduced service and that W&LE and ABC will continue to provide freight rail service over their respective lines.”
According to the STB, W&LE and Union Railroad Company, LLC, a carrier already controlled by Fortress through Transtar, share one common customer, and that customer filed a statement in support of the transaction. There were no filings in opposition to the transaction, the federal agency reported.
The transaction “satisfies the applicable statutory criteria and will not result in significant impacts on competition,” and “will enhance W&LE’s and ABC’s access to capital and therefore facilitate strategic investment decisions and growth opportunities,” according to the STB.
FTAI Infrastructure Inc. on Aug. 6 reported agreeing to purchase The Wheeling Corporation, owner of W&LE, for cash consideration of $1.05 billion from an entity controlled by Larry R. Parsons, CEO of The Wheeling Corporation.
FTAI Infrastructure Inc. is externally managed by an affiliate of diversified global investment firm Fortress Investment Group LLC, and includes in its portfolio: Transtar, which owns and operates six Class IIIs and a contract switching company transporting raw materials, semi-finished products, and finished products for a wide range of industries; Jefferson Energy Companies in Texas; Repauno Port & Rail Terminal in Pennsylvania; and Long Ridge Energy & Power in Ohio. Concurrently with the acquisition’s closing, FTAI Infrastructure Inc. said it planned to refinance its existing 10.50% senior notes and Series A preferred stock. According to the company, it had received commitments for $2.25 billion of total capital including $1.25 billion of new debt to be issued by FTAI Infrastructure Inc. and $1 billion of preferred stock to be purchased by Ares Management funds and issued by a newly formed holding company that will own the combined Transtar and W&LE business.
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With more than 20 years of experience in Siemens, Bauer will lead a team of more than 4,500 employees “to deliver seamless, reliable and innovative transportation solutions to customers across the United States and Canada.”
Joining Siemens in 2004, Bauer has held key leadership roles across Europe, India, and North America over the past two decades, including assignments in New York, Massachusetts, and California. He has served as Acting CEO of Siemens Mobility North America since July 2025 and was appointed President of the North American Rolling Stock division in January 2025. Before that, Bauer was the Senior Vice President of Rail Infrastructure for Siemens Mobility North America, a role he held since 2021.
Bauer has played a key role in major Siemens Mobility North America projects over the course of his career, from implementing Communications-Based Train Control (CBTC) to delivering the first Siemens Dual-Mode Charger Locomotives for Metro-North Railroad earlier this year, which seamlessly switches between diesel-electric and third-rail electric power, the company noted.
“We’re delighted to name Tobias Bauer as CEO of Siemens Mobility North America,” said Michael Peter, Global CEO of Siemens Mobility. “His proven track record of innovation, customer-focused growth, and experience across our business makes him uniquely suited to lead our operations in North America. Under his visionary leadership, we will strengthen our market position and transform mobility for operators and passengers across the United States and Canada.”
In addition to his CEO responsibilities, Bauer will continue as President of Rolling Stock for Siemens Mobility North America, “driving the development and delivery of advanced rail solutions—from light rail and locomotives to trainsets and high-speed rail,” the company said.
“It is an honor and true privilege to lead Siemens Mobility North America during this transformative time for the rail industry,” said Bauer. “Siemens Mobility is ready to lead the way, with our talented team that keeps communities connected and innovation moving forward. Together, we’ll set new standards for mobility across North America.”
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We’re always the backbone of the supply chain, but the holidays are a time of year when our mission becomes even more tangible and recognizable.
Peak Season isn’t just about moving more freight. It’s about moving what matters: gifts for family and friends, inventory for small businesses, and the essentials that keep communities running strong through the busiest shopping season of the year.
From the moment a container arrives at an East Coast port to the package landing on a front porch, our network connects the dots—linking terminals, distribution hubs, and communities in a seamless flow.
A Season of ScalePeak Season brings a surge unlike anything else on the calendar:
Throughout Peak Season, our teams can see as much as a 60% increase in parcel volumes compared to the rest of the year. That sequential surge means more shipments moving through busy terminals, longer trains running along key routes, and our people working tirelessly around the clock to ensure packages arrive safely and on time.
The Execution Norris Yard in Birmingham, ALPreparing for the holiday rush is no small feat. It doesn’t happen by chance—it’s built on tactical precision and cross-functional collaboration. Here’s how our teams prepare and perform:
1. Terminal & Equipment Readiness
2. Train Plan Optimization
3. Precision ETA’s
4. Locomotive Reliability
5. Communication & Exception Handling
6. Safety & Security
NSPD Special Agent Mckinnor and K9 Thorr patrolling at Inman Yard in Atlanta, GAIt takes every person on Team NS to deliver the holidays. Behind the scenes, teams across Transportation, Intermodal Terminal Operations, Engineering, Mechanical, the Network Operations Center (NOC), Network Design & Optimization, Customer Logistics, and Commercial work together 24/7 to coordinate efforts, overcome challenges, and deliver a successful Peak Season.
There’s a unique energy during this time of year, a shared purpose that ignites our team and drives us to rise to the challenge. Every railroader knows what’s at stake and brings their A-game because every second and every delivery counts.
Rain. Snow. Tight timelines. Record volumes. We’re ready for it all. Every train, every package, every mile—NS is proud to keep the holidays safely on track.
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The U.S. Surface Transportation Board has approved Fortress Investment Group’s $1.05 billion purchase of Wheeling & Lake Erie, the 982-mile regional railroad that operates through Ohio, West Virginia, Maryland, and Pennsylvania.
The STB approved the acquisition application on November 26, and it will take effect on December 26. Wheeling will become part of Fortress’s Transtar operation, which runs seven different short lines across the country, including Union Railroad Company, which interchanges with W&LE. The transaction also includes the Akron Barberton Cluster Railway, which operates on 84 miles of track around Akron, Ohio.
The Wheeling & Lake Erie was established in 1990 after acquiring former Norfolk Southern routes, some of which belonged to the original W&LE that operated from 1877 until it was leased to the Nickel Plate Road in 1949. The railroad maintains a fleet of EMD locomotives in a Denver & Rio Grande Western-inspired livery.
In a press release announcing the approval, the STB stated that the regulator received no comments opposing the merger. The one customer served by both Union and Wheeling submitted a comment supporting the consolidation.
—Justin Franz
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Denver RTD on Nov. 25 announced that it is introducing Tap-n-Ride, a new fare payment option that provides a quick, secure and convenient way for customers to pay their fare at any validator.
Customers simply need to tap a Visa or Mastercard credit, debit, or prepaid card—or use a Visa or Mastercard loaded into a mobile wallet—directly on a bus or rail validator and ride. Mobile wallet payment options include Apple Pay, Google Pay, and Samsung Pay, and are available in a mobile phone or smart watch. RTD plans to add American Express and Discover card options to its Tap-n-Ride program in early 2026.
(Denver RTD)With Tap-n-Ride, customers, RTD says, can forgo using a ticket vending machine (TVM), having cash on hand, visiting a sales outlet, buying a mobile ticket, or preloading fare into their MyRide account. While all other existing fare payment methods will remain available for customers, Tap-n-Ride provides an additional, convenient fare payment option. Tap-n-Ride functions similarly to the agency’s MyRide card process.
“The introduction of Tap-n-Ride provides an experience that is easy to navigate, equitable, and accessible for everyone who relies on RTD,” said Debra A. Johnson, RTD’s General Manager and CEO. “This new fare payment option is focused on removing barriers and offering customers a seamless, straightforward experience where they can simply tap and ride. With fare capping available, customers can feel confident they’re always getting the best fare on each and every trip.”
More information is available here.
SkylineSince the second segment of HART’s Skyline opened to the public on Oct. 16, weekday ridership numbers have routines surpassed 10,000 daily, according to data provided to Aloha State Daily by the City and County of Honolulu.
According to the Aloha State Daily report, there were three Mondays—Oct. 20, Oct. 27 and Nov. 10—where the number of riders dipped just below that threshold: 9,816, 9,936 and 9,998 respectively.
Veteran’s Day, which was Tuesday, Nov. 11, had the lowest weekday ridership tally since Oct. 16, with 7,966.
Opening day of segment 2 had the highest weekday count so far, with 11,897 riders, followed by Wednesday, Nov. 19, with 11,298. Even more turned out for a fare-free weekend on Oct. 18 and 19.
“The Department of Transportation Services is incredibly pleased to see our communities embrace Skyline as a new alternative way to get around,” DTS Deputy Director Jon Nouchi said in a statement provided to Aloha State Daily. “We are now seeing average weekday ridership surpass 11,000 passengers, a figure that is triple what we carried during the operation of Segment 1.”
According to the Aloha State Daily, in September, daily ridership counts ranged from 1,842 to 7,519. Prior to the second section of the rail route opening last month, monthly ridership numbers this year had been as low as 89,167 in June and as high as 119,513 in September.
In October, ridership totaled 241,373.
Here are the weekday counts from Oct. 16 through Nov. 21, provided by the city:
LA Metro recently announced that combined registrations for its LIFE and GoPass programs, which provide free rides and discounted passes to low income, student and fire-impacted Angelenos, has exceeded 1,000,000 since 2021, “marking a major milestone in the transit agency’s efforts to make transit more equitable and accessible,” according to a Van Nuys News Press report.
“In total, these programs have provided low-income residents, fire-impacted Angelenos and students from participating school districts with more than 92 million free rides and 14 million rides on discounted passes,” according to the report.
“Growing these programs have been a major focus for our team over the last few years, so it’s very satisfying to see how far we’ve come in a relatively short period of time,” said LA Metro CEO Stephanie Wiggins. “Transportation is the number two household expense, behind housing, so these free rides through GoPass and LIFE are changing lives in a really meaningful way. Thank you to all our LIFE and GoPass riders for choosing Metro to get around the region, and we’ll continue to identify ways to make these programs easier and more accessible to everyone who depends on us.”
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David James DeBoer, best known for his work in the railroad intermodal space, died Nov. 17, 2025 in Monterey Bay, Calif. He was 87.
DeBoer began his career in transportation at the New York Central Railroad. He later spent time at Trans World Airlines before joining the Federal Railroad Administration Office of Policy and Economics to work on the formation of Conrail following the Penn Central bankruptcy. Following that, he established the Rail Service Planning Office at the Interstate Commerce Commission. DeBoer eventually joined the Marketing Department at the Southern Pacific in 1978 and later became Assistant Vice President of SP’s intermodal division. Intermodal dominated the remainder of his career. In 1984, DeBoer left SP to help establish Greenbrier Intermodal, eventually becoming President of the division.
DeBoer represented the United States in international rail congresses in Bologna, Italy and Moscow, Russia, where he gave papers on U.S. Intermodal progress. He was also a writer. He wrote a monthly column on intermodalism for Modern Railroads (which Railway Age acquired in 1992) and later for Progressive Railroading under the pseudonym of Paul V. Carr. He authored “Piggyback & Containers, A History of Rail Intermodal on America’s Steel Highway,” which became a text for the industry.
The son of James Frederich DeBoer and Marian Elaine Teal, DeBoer was born in Kalamazoo, Mich. He grew up in Battle Creek, and was a graduate of Battle Creek Central High School in 1956. He attended Albian College and the University of Michigan, where he received his BA in 1960 and his MBA in 1963. DeBoer is survived by his wife of 66 years, Sandra Ogden DeBoer, a daughter, Kathleen Hurd of Vancouver, Wash., a son James Phillip DeBoer of Kutztown, Pa., a son Christopher David DeBoer of Walnut Creek, Calif.; seven grandchildren; and his sister, Karen DeBoer Potts of Lake Jackson, Tex.
“I knew Dave when he was at Greenbrier,” recalls Tom Simpson, who retired as President of the Railway Supply Institute (RSI) and also ran its predecessor, the Railway Progress Institute (RPI). “He chaired the short-lived RPI Committee on Intermodalism. Under that guise, he and I rented a car and toured rail lines in the Chicago area looking for solutions to the rail-truck-rail interchanges that slowed intermodal traffic in Chicago. We went so far as meeting with the mayor’s office to plead our case—alas, to no avail. Dave and I would also tour the IANA (Intermodal Association of North America) conference in Atlanta and amuse ourselves with the experimental equipment on display. It was all lots of fun.”
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North American rail volume on nine reporting U.S., Canadian, and Mexican railroads came in at 31,955,940 carloads and intermodal units for the 47-week period ending Nov. 22, 2025, the AAR reported Nov. 26. Cumulative volume in the U.S. was 23,225,929 carloads and intermodal containers and trailers, up 2.0% from the same point last year; in Canada, 7,619,166 carloads and intermodal units, up 2.3%; and in Mexico, 1,110,845 carloads and intermodal units, down 5.6%.
For the week ending Nov. 22, 2025, total U.S. rail traffic was 516,110 carloads and intermodal units, down 0.9% from the same week last year, according to the AAR. Total carloads came in at 234,592, up 2.0%, and intermodal volume was 281,518 containers and trailers, down 3.2%.
Four of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2024. They included coal, up 4,795 carloads, to 62,956; nonmetallic minerals, up 2,379 carloads, to 32,282; and grain, up 2,253 carloads, to 25,893. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2024 included petroleum and petroleum products, down 1,187 carloads, to 10,587; chemicals, down 1,092 carloads, to 32,699; and miscellaneous carloads, down 1,068 carloads, to 8,875.
For the first 47 weeks of this year, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 10,462,354 carloads, up 1.8% from the same point last year; and 12,763,575 intermodal units, up 2.1% from last year.
North American rail volume for the week ending Nov. 22, 2025, on nine reporting U.S., Canadian, and Mexican railroads totaled 343,457 carloads, up 1.9% compared with the same week last year; and 365,425 intermodal units, down 2.0% compared with last year. Total combined weekly rail traffic in North America was 708,882 carloads and intermodal units, down 0.1%.
For the week ending Nov. 22, 2025, Canadian railroads reported 96,121 carloads, up 1.5%, and 70,202 intermodal units, up 1.5% from the same week in 2024.
Mexican railroads reported 12,744 carloads for the week ending Nov. 22, 2025, up 1.5% from the same week last year, and 13,705 intermodal units, up 7.4% from last year.
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Orders for new railcars in 2025’s third quarter amounted to 3,071. We’re not facing a financial crisis, or a COVID lockdown, but orders are behaving as though we’re in a crisis. This is a travesty with potential harm to the industry over the next few years.
Carloads have been resilient, railcar scrapping remains elevated, cars in storage are stable, utilization remains elevated, orders for new railcars are anemic, railcar prices are higher, and the fleet is shrinking—and lease price renewals are proving sticky above 20%! What’s going on?
Lessors love scarcity and hate surplus. With most car types in short supply, pricing power shifts to lessors. But without carload growth, that pricing power eventually disappears. As Paul Titterton, Executive Vice President at GATX North America, reflected at Rail Equipment Finance 2025 in March and at the GATX 1Q25 earnings call: “We continue to believe in what we’ve been calling the supply-led market thesis and the self-correcting market thesis, which is basically to say … that it is relative to history, expensive to build and expensive to finance new railcars, and that has been a constraint on new car production” The industry is in a supply driven cycle triggering shortages of certain car types and stronger pricing power for lessors.
In December 2022, I predicted a sustained period of higher railcar prices and lease rates. Now, three years later, my prediction has become reality. How much longer will it last, what is driving higher lease rates, and what impact will this trend have on the industry?
Shrinking North American FleetThe North American railcar fleet has contracted roughly 3% between 2020 and today, from a high of 1,675,511 to 1,635,097, a net decline of 40,414. Railcar scrap rates remain elevated, driven by attractive scrap prices and railcar demographics. It is anticipated that 188,000 railcars will age out over the next five years. If railcars built between 1993 and 2004 that have been loaded to 286K GRL but were designed to 263K specs start fatiguing out, the number of scrapped cars may go much higher. If orders for new railcars don’t pick up soon, the fleet may shrink by 60,000-80,000 railcars over the next three to five years, dipping well below 1.6 million in the North American fleet—all this in the face of growing carload demand:
Orders for new railcars for the past two years have been well below replacement levels of 35,000-42,000 railcars annually:
The order spike in 3Q22 reflects the GATX/Trinity long term supply agreement for 5,000 railcars annually.
From 3Q23 through 4Q24, deliveries of new railcars were steady at 10,000/quarter. However, since 4Q24, deliveries have trended down to 7,500/quarter. With anemic orders and elevated deliveries, the overall backlog has fallen precipitously. At the end of 3Q22, the railcar backlog was 61,415, while today the backlog is down to 25,637. Unless orders pick up, carbuilders will need to scale down operations significantly very soon.
Reinforcing this message, Paul Titterton said during the GATX 1Q25 earnings call: “If you look at the ARCI (RSI American Railway Car Institute Committee) numbers for the past couple of quarters, we’re on an annualized run rate of around 20,000 car orders per year, which is well below the replacement rate, well below what we’ve seen in history. That is supportive of our business.”
New Railcar PricesRailcar builders have been disciplined on pricing and margin, driven by pressure from the investment community. To illustrate: when Greenbrier announced 3Q25 earnings on 7/1/25 that beat estimates, the share price shot up 22% the next day! It has since retreated, driven by the order trough. Combined with higher input costs, particularly steel and components, new railcar prices remain elevated. Higher prices for new railcars increase the value of older railcars, to the benefit of lessors in terms of asset values and higher lease prices. Higher interest rates further add to the cost of new railcars.
Carloads Remain Steady, With Upside PotentialFrom a recent AAR publication, U.S. carloads have grown 2.1% year-to-date. In contrast to truckloads, rail carloads have proven to be far more resilient. Coal and grain have contributed significantly to rail’s overall performance. A couple of years ago I postulated that the decline of coal would slow down, and when that time came, we would begin to see net carload growth for the first time in almost 20 years. The “Pivot to Growth” is being led by coal carload increases, and growth in grain, intermodal and possibly construction-related products (i.e. lumber, aggregates) if housing starts rebound. All other commodities, including motor vehicles, have been steady.
Railcars in StorageThere are currently 330,085 railcars in storage, 35% of which, or 110,000, are tank cars. The second largest car type in storage is covered hoppers, representing 29% of stored cars, or 103,000. Coal cars, including hoppers and gondolas, represent another 62,000 cars, or 17% of stored railcars. Together, these three classifications represent 81% of stored railcars. The question becomes: Will these cars ever return to service given the changes in their respective markets as well as better, more productive designs? The real number of stored railcar candidates to return to service is likely much lower than 317,000. This supports tightness in railcar availability.
Railcar Ownership Changes Have Shifted Toward LessorsOver the past 30 years, railcar ownership has shifted to lessor-owned fleets as railroads devote their capital toward infrastructure and locomotives:
Source: TrinityRail 1Q25 investor presentation.As railcar ownership has shifted toward lessors, there has been tremendous reorganization and rationalization within the lessor community, as exemplified by the recent acquisition of the Wells Fargo fleet by GATX/Brookfield Infrastructure Partners: A new joint venture of GATX Corp. and Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. have entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Wells Fargo’s rail operating lease portfolio of approximately 105,000 railcars for $4.4 billion. Initial joint venture equity ownership will be GATX (30%) and Brookfield Infrastructure (70%), with GATX having the option to acquire 100% of the joint venture equity over time. With the GATX/Brookfield JV acquisition of the Wells Fargo fleet, GATX market share of the lessor-owned fleet will increase from 13% to 25%.
Source: GATX investor presentation re: Wells Fargo asset acquisition, 5/30/25Going forward, there will likely be fewer, larger lessors who will yield more control and discipline over railcar supply and availability. Gone are the days of upstart leasing companies who speculate recklessly, driven largely by 0% rates.
Lease Price TrendsBoth GATX and TrinityRail offer tools for tracking the directionality of lease prices. GATX utilizes its LPI (Lease Price Indicator), while TrinityRail offers its FLRD (Future Lease Rate Differential) chart:
Source: TrinityRail 1Q25 investor presentationTrinityRail reported a 17.9% increase in its FLRD in the 1Q25 earnings report, while GATX reported a 24.5% increase in the same period. GATX has offered the LPI for years, yielding insight into historical lease price trends in response to market dynamics:
As reflected above, the railcar leasing industry has weathered its share of prolonged ups and downs. What we’ve seen over the past couple of years is a re-pricing of the “COVID Era” leases, reflected in 20%-plus changes in lease rates. Absolute lease rates, on the other hand, have proven relatively flat.
Going forward, there is high probability that lease rate renewal pricing will remain elevated, given the consolidation in leasing companies, further disciplined supply and continued elevated railcar retirements and scrapping. These factors all contribute to a sustained favorable lease price environment. But is all this good for the overall freight rail industry?
Anemic orders for new railcars aren’t good. Railcar ownership has shifted squarely toward lessors, who have learned that railcar tightness results in higher lease rates. Why add to supply and possibly risk lease price pressure? With the fleet trending toward sub-1.6 million railcars, will the industry be able to support any uptick in carloads?
Railroad carloads have proven resilient, with a few growth opportunities imminent. When railcars aren’t available to prospective shippers, or the railcar that is delivered is a piece of junk, that growth opportunity disappears. Furthermore, running 20-plus-year-old equipment detracts from overall performance through higher track and wheel costs, higher fuel costs, lower reliability and higher risk of failure (remember East Palestine?) Railcars produced today are far superior to those produced more than 20 years ago. Delaying innovative designs detracts from overall railroad performance. Above all, the rail industry won’t be able to grow if good railcars aren’t available. It’s time to start rebuilding the fleet!
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